The political landscape in Britain is currently in a state of flux, with a slow-motion coup unfolding against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This saga, filled with intrigue and backroom dealings, has left the country in a leadership limbo that could persist for weeks.
The Slow-Motion Coup
Starmer, despite facing mounting pressure from within his own party, has yet to encounter a formal challenge to his leadership. Instead, he finds himself in a protracted power struggle that threatens to drag on indefinitely. The Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch, summed up the situation succinctly, stating that Starmer is "in office but not in power."
This coup has its roots in the poor election results for the Labour Party on May 7th, where they lost a significant number of local council seats to Reform and the Greens. Many MPs and cabinet ministers believe Starmer cannot lead them to victory in the next general election, and so the search for a replacement has begun.
A Unique Dynamic
What makes this situation particularly fascinating is the unique dynamic between the Labour and Conservative parties when it comes to leadership challenges. The Conservatives have a more efficient system, where 15% of MPs can trigger a confidence ballot anonymously, leading to swift action. In contrast, Labour requires 20% of MPs to endorse a challenger, which then initiates a lengthy leadership election process involving the entire party membership.
This difference in rules has led to interesting outcomes. Labour leaders can sometimes survive despite lacking support from their MPs, while Conservative leaders can be toppled even with popular support. This was evident in 2016 when Jeremy Corbyn, despite a massive rebellion from his own MPs, won a vote of confidence from party members, emerging stronger than ever.
The Hesitancy to Act
One recurring theme in British political coups is the hesitancy of MPs to be the first to challenge the incumbent. As Michael Heseltine, a former Conservative politician, said, "He who wields the knife never wears the crown." This sentiment is echoed in Andrew Rawnsley's book, "The End of the Party," which details the ousting of Tony Blair and the subsequent struggles of Gordon Brown. Rawnsley writes about Brown's fear of being seen as the one to bring down Blair, a sentiment that resonates with many MPs.
The 'King of the North'
Adding to the intrigue is the potential successor to Starmer, Andy Burnham, who is not even an MP at the moment. Burnham, nicknamed the "King of the North," has built a strong power base in northwest England as the Greater Manchester Mayor. He is currently the most popular figure among Labour voters and the wider public, according to a recent YouGov poll.
However, Burnham's path to the leadership is not without obstacles. His attempt to resign as mayor and stand in a by-election was thwarted by the Labour National Executive Committee, allegedly at Starmer's behest. Now, Burnham is set to contest the Makerfield seat in a by-election on June 18th, an event described as "the most consequential since World War II" by commentator Jason Cowley.
The outcome of this by-election is far from certain, with Reform and the Greens also in the running. If Burnham wins, it is almost guaranteed that he will become the next Prime Minister. However, if he loses, the Labour leadership struggle could descend into chaos, with other candidates like Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner stepping up.
The Impact of the Limbo
In the meantime, Britain is adrift in leadership limbo. Starmer's authority has diminished, and his policy announcements are drowned out by speculation about his departure. As Robert Peston, political editor of ITV News, put it, Starmer has become a "lame duck prime minister."
This situation raises important questions about the stability of British politics and the impact of internal party struggles on governance. It remains to be seen how this slow-motion coup will unfold and who will ultimately emerge as the leader of the Labour Party and, potentially, the country.
